Why High-Volume Practices Feel the Impact First
For low-volume practices, a short-term increase in prescription demand may be manageable. But for high-volume clinics, even a 15% or 20% increase can create significant operational strain.
At scale, small disruptions multiply.
A delayed refill can affect:
- Patient adherence
- Follow-up timing
- Staff workload
- Appointment flow
- Patient confidence
This is why high-volume practices need pharmacy partners that can support both average demand and peak demand. Capacity must be planned for the spike, not just the baseline.
How to Calculate Summer Demand Spikes
The first step in preparing for seasonal volume is understanding what your demand actually looks like.
1. Establish Your Baseline Monthly Volume
Start by reviewing prescription volume from the past 3 to 6 months.
Formula:
Baseline Monthly Volume = Total prescriptions over selected months ÷ Number of months
Example:
If your practice filled 900 prescriptions over 6 months:
900 ÷ 6 = 150 prescriptions per month
Your baseline is 150 prescriptions per month.
2. Identify Seasonal Growth Percentage
Next, compare previous summer months to your baseline.
Formula:
Demand Spike Percentage = (Summer volume – Baseline volume) ÷ Baseline volume × 100
Example:
If your baseline is 150 prescriptions per month, and last July you reached 195 prescriptions:
(195 – 150) ÷ 150 × 100 = 30% spike
This means your practice experienced a 30% summer demand increase.
3. Forecast Expected Summer Volume
Once you know your historical spike percentage, apply it to your current volume.
Formula:
Projected Summer Volume = Current baseline × (1 + Expected spike percentage)
Example:
If your current baseline is 220 prescriptions per month and you expect a 30% spike:
220 × 1.30 = 286 prescriptions per month
Your practice should prepare for approximately 286 prescriptions per month.
4. Add a Safety Buffer
Demand forecasting should include a buffer for unexpected growth, shipping delays, travel-related refill requests, or promotional activity.
A practical buffer is usually 10% to 20%.
Formula:
Prepared Capacity = Projected Summer Volume × 1.10 or 1.20
Example:
If projected summer volume is 286 prescriptions:
286 × 1.15 = 329 prescriptions
Your operational planning should account for roughly 329 prescriptions per month.
This helps prevent your team from operating at maximum capacity with no room for variation.